VanEck advisor Gabor Gurbacs has in the recent projection indicated that investors could encounter disappointment from the slow performance of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He informed the investors against underestimating the spot Bitcoin ETFs since they are likely to attract trillions of capital inflow over time.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs to Usher TradFi Capital and Numbers into Crypto Space
Gurbacs optimistic view of Bitcoin ETFs comes as the investment community anticipates approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission in January. The positive view of Bitcoin ETFs aligns to the market observers’ forecast that it would attract more traditional financial (TradFi) institutions to participate in the crypto space.
Gurbacs echoes the projection offered by Ark Invest chief executive Cathy Woods who indicated in a pre-Christmas interview with CNBC that TradFi to allocate 1% to 2% of their capital to Bitcoin ETF would translate to a huge inflow to the space.
Gurbacs revealed in a January 1 post on X (previously Twitter) that spot Bitcoin ETF had overestimated impact at the initial phase. The VanEck adviser indicates that the spot Bitcoin ETF launch would experience a $100M net inflow largely as recycled finance from the leading large institutional investors.
Nonetheless, Gurbacs offered a bullish prediction on the ETF’s effect on Bitcoin’s long-term price. He pointed out that it would likely replicate the gold price appreciation witnessed following the gold ETF launch.
However, Gurbacs was far more bullish about the ETFs’ impact on Bitcoin over the long term, pointing to the gold price appreciation that came after the launch of gold ETFs.
VanEck Forecasts Bitcoin to Match Gold Price Uptick Following ETF Launch
Gurbac reflected on the November 18 incident back in 2004 when the investment advisory firm State Street unveiled the inaugural gold ETF. Gurbacs illustrated that eight years following the 2004 launch saw the gold price surge beyond quadruple levels to exchange hands at $1800 from $400. The outsized appreciation led the total market capitalization to grow from $2 trillion to over $10 trillion in the eight-year time frame.
Gurbacs observed that Bitcoin’s market capitalization hovers around $830 billion representing 41% of the gold capitalization back in 2004. He considers that the nod from the Gary Gensler-led SEC to the widely anticipated spot Bitcoin ETF would trigger Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
The VanEck and Tether advisor considers that the price would likely follow in the gold’s footsteps. He considers that the price could rise much faster given that Bitcoin price is capped at 21 million tokens amid the scarcity acceleration events such as the April halving.
Spot Bitcoin ETF to Legitimize Crypto Among Institutional Investors
Gurbacs considered that the spot Bitcoin ETF offers a unique benefit in the capability to legitimize and destigmatize Bitcoin’s perception among nation-states and institutional investors.
Bloomberg ETF lead analyst Eric Balchunas echoed Gurbac’s statement indicating that investors who would seek long-term in the product would reap the greatest return. Fellow analyst James Seyffart indicated that though the majority of investors are laser-focused on selling short, are unfortunately disregarding its long-term impact.
Gurbacs’ view serves warning to the investors seeking to seek the news though they will realize gains from price pumps, they would ultimately miss the long-lasting price uptick.
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